India's juggling act: the neutrality strategy
Diana Soares reveals India's neutrality strategy and why it remains unchanged.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been going on for over a month, yet India, the world’s largest democracy refrains from condemning Russia’s actions.
In 1947 India gained its independence since then, it has preserved a prime relationship with Moscow. That has been marked by important key moments. Like the celebration of the “Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Co-operation”, in 1971, between the two. Furthermore in 2010 with the “Special and Strategic Partnership”
This connection has unfolded on many levels, internationally both countries tend to protect each other in matters that many times are controversial. Russia has always backed India´s debated politics in Kashmir, even when India scrapped Article 370. Moscow has consistently displayed that it is an Indian internal matter, and it should not preoccupy other countries.
Equally, New Delhi has continuously supported Moscow internationally. Not only with favourable statements but also with vetoes and abstaining from voting against resolutions that criticise Moscow´s behaviour, in the international arena. For example, in 1979 when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, India abstained from voting in the UN General Assembly that condemned the Soviet Union. Even in India, numerous people criticize Moscow’s conduct, including Prime Minister Charan Singh.
This long-lasting connection is not only founded on international political favours. But also on economic and strategic bonds.
India´s prime defence supplier is Russia, having a big dependence on Russian arms supplies and hardware. Defence is vital for India´s politics because they engage in some conflicts, their biggest perils being Pakistan and China.
Many of the New Delhi defence necessities are met by Moscow, which offers special prices on arms that are essential, like the S-400 missile system, which has massive tactical significance. Reports indicate that over the last decades, 70% of Indian armed force systems have Russian sources; and that between 2016 and 2020 nearly half of India´s arms imports are from Russia.
India´s critical national defence dependency on Russia makes it less receptive to criticizing Russia. In fear of repercussion and losing an advantage, especially against China. India´s foreign affairs must always be mindful when exploring relations with the West, something crucial for its growing importance in the world; but that can easily sever its ties with Russia.
For instance, India´s participation in the Indo- Pacific Quad, is important for its cooperation with the West and the United States. On the other hand, it can tarnish India´s ties with Russia, and bring Russia and China strategically closer. One of India´s greatest fears, and a danger to its national security.
All these needs and dreads make New Delhi think twice when debating topics associated with Moscow. Thus India has yet to reprimand Russia, having abstained 5 times from United Nations from voting against Russia. Always aspiring for a diplomatic solution to solve the conflict transpiring in Ukraine, but never making an explicit position about where it stands. Opting to stay neutral.
When reports exhibit that India has been purchasing a larger amount of oil from Russia than before the conflict. Also, some reports state that the oil being sold has a large discount. Something that strikes as odd since India´s biggest oil supplier has always been the Middle East and not Russia. An act that might not be looked at as very neutral.
This political choice puts all principles aside, being purely a diplomatic solution that looks to protect its nation’s best interests. Michael Kugelman said “Why did 30-odd countries refuse to condemn the aggression? The answer is simple: because it was not in their interest to vote in favour of the resolution. At the end of the day, its interests, not morality, that drive foreign policy decisions.”
Correspondingly, if India censured Russia on international stages, this could further isolate Moscow and bring it nearer China, something that not only scares India but also the USA. The USA has not pressured India to take a stance, comprehending the delicate situation. President Biden has expressed that India’s lack of response and sanctions against Russia is “somewhat shaky,” but not much more.
India must seek alternatives because many countries do not see neutrality with pleasing eyes. It could attempt to be a third-party negotiator, having suitable ties with both Ukraine and Russia. A good opportunity to show its diplomatic talents and leave a mark in history. This possibility is conditioned by President Putin’s readiness to yield, so it might not be the safest option. If this invasion drags on much longer, India might be forced to finally pick a side.
This connection has unfolded on many levels, internationally both countries tend to protect each other in matters that many times are controversial. Russia has always backed India´s debated politics in Kashmir, even when India scrapped Article 370. Moscow has consistently displayed that it is an Indian internal matter, and it should not preoccupy other countries.
Equally, New Delhi has continuously supported Moscow internationally. Not only with favourable statements but also with vetoes and abstaining from voting against resolutions that criticise Moscow´s behaviour, in the international arena. For example, in 1979 when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, India abstained from voting in the UN General Assembly that condemned the Soviet Union. Even in India, numerous people criticize Moscow’s conduct, including Prime Minister Charan Singh.
This long-lasting connection is not only founded on international political favours. But also on economic and strategic bonds.
India´s prime defence supplier is Russia, having a big dependence on Russian arms supplies and hardware. Defence is vital for India´s politics because they engage in some conflicts, their biggest perils being Pakistan and China.
Many of the New Delhi defence necessities are met by Moscow, which offers special prices on arms that are essential, like the S-400 missile system, which has massive tactical significance. Reports indicate that over the last decades, 70% of Indian armed force systems have Russian sources; and that between 2016 and 2020 nearly half of India´s arms imports are from Russia.
India´s critical national defence dependency on Russia makes it less receptive to criticizing Russia. In fear of repercussion and losing an advantage, especially against China. India´s foreign affairs must always be mindful when exploring relations with the West, something crucial for its growing importance in the world; but that can easily sever its ties with Russia.
For instance, India´s participation in the Indo- Pacific Quad, is important for its cooperation with the West and the United States. On the other hand, it can tarnish India´s ties with Russia, and bring Russia and China strategically closer. One of India´s greatest fears, and a danger to its national security.
All these needs and dreads make New Delhi think twice when debating topics associated with Moscow. Thus India has yet to reprimand Russia, having abstained 5 times from United Nations from voting against Russia. Always aspiring for a diplomatic solution to solve the conflict transpiring in Ukraine, but never making an explicit position about where it stands. Opting to stay neutral.
When reports exhibit that India has been purchasing a larger amount of oil from Russia than before the conflict. Also, some reports state that the oil being sold has a large discount. Something that strikes as odd since India´s biggest oil supplier has always been the Middle East and not Russia. An act that might not be looked at as very neutral.
This political choice puts all principles aside, being purely a diplomatic solution that looks to protect its nation’s best interests. Michael Kugelman said “Why did 30-odd countries refuse to condemn the aggression? The answer is simple: because it was not in their interest to vote in favour of the resolution. At the end of the day, its interests, not morality, that drive foreign policy decisions.”
Correspondingly, if India censured Russia on international stages, this could further isolate Moscow and bring it nearer China, something that not only scares India but also the USA. The USA has not pressured India to take a stance, comprehending the delicate situation. President Biden has expressed that India’s lack of response and sanctions against Russia is “somewhat shaky,” but not much more.
India must seek alternatives because many countries do not see neutrality with pleasing eyes. It could attempt to be a third-party negotiator, having suitable ties with both Ukraine and Russia. A good opportunity to show its diplomatic talents and leave a mark in history. This possibility is conditioned by President Putin’s readiness to yield, so it might not be the safest option. If this invasion drags on much longer, India might be forced to finally pick a side.
Comentários
Enviar um comentário